The commentator's curse in padel, attractors, and Markov chains. A case study

Abstract

This study presents an approach to analyzing padel player behavior from the perspective of complex systems and dynamical systems theory. Using the Markov model of change, we identify the attractors or stable states of behavior that influence player performance in a competitive context, providing valuable information to design more effective strategies and training. Using data obtained from the World Padel Tour competition and the Markov change model, we quantify the behavioral patterns of a top five in the world ranking player by analyzing his strokes and his positions on the court. A sport of cooperation and opposition in alternative space and time implements, glass and fences, or outdoor play, such as the one that characterizes padel, involves a high demand for continuous player adaptation to a variable context. With the Markov model, we were able to identify the behavioral attractor states of the player in serving, returning, in each area of the court, and after the opponent hit a lob. As a conclusion, despite the impossibility of predicting the players' behavior with accuracy, the Markov model can help us understand the dynamics of player behaviors and whether there are competitive contexts that foster certain stable states.