Influence of scoreline on point and game outcomes in professional men’s padel

Abstract

The influence of scoreline on match outcome has been previously explored in padel, primarily focusing on differences between winning and losing pairs. However, limited evidence exists regarding how each point within the game contributes to the final outcome. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the probability of winning both the point and the game as a function of scoreline, as well as to identify game sequences and critical points associated with game outcome. An observational design was used to analyze 2,077 points from 17 professional men’s matches on the 2022 Premier Padel circuit. Results revealed a general advantage for the serving pair, with point-winning probabilities exceeding 55% in most scenarios. This advantage was particularly evident in early disadvantage situations (0–30 = 69%; 0–40 = 66%) and at critical moments such as deuce (40–40 = 65%), with point success decreased by approximately 3% with each additional shot (β = −.031; OR = .970; p < .001). Game-winning probability varied significantly depending on scoreline (p < .001; Vc = .396), increasing under advantageous conditions (30–0 = 89.80%; 40–15 = 93.91%; 40–0 = 98.73%, ASR = 5.61–5.67) and decreasing markedly under disadvantage (0–30 = 36.21%; 0–40 = 5.56%, ASR = -5.56–-6.07). Intermediate scorelines emerged as key transitional moments, where the outcome of a single point led to substantial shifts in winning probability (e.g., from 15–15 = 67.92% to 15–30 = 48.11%; from 30–30 = 66.17% to 30–40 = 39.02%). The most critical situations were identified at deuce (40–40 = 100%) and during break points (30–40 = 65.31%; 15–40 = 45.45%). Furthermore, sequence analysis showed that winning the first two points markedly increases the likelihood of winning the game for both the serving pair (e.g., 15–0; 30–0; 40–0 or 15–0; 30–0; 30–15; 40–15, 27.7%, ASR = 3.12–4.74) and the returning pair (e.g., 0–15; 0–30; 15–30; 15–40 or 0–15; 0–30; 0–40, 15.54%, ASR = 3.92–5.09). In conclusion, scoreline plays a decisive role in padel performance, as not all points contribute equally to the final outcome.